The Conspiracy Index
Analysis of Modern Beliefs & Historical Facts
Reality vs. Fiction
Throughout history, conspiracy theories have shaped public discourse. While most are baseless, a select few—like MKUltra or Watergate—proved true.
Did you know?
Approximately 50% of the U.S. adult population believes at least one conspiracy theory.
Select a theory below to investigate the evidence.
The Feasibility Spectrum
We analyzed 15 common theories, ranking them from Scientifically Impossible (0%) to Historically Proven (100%). Click any bar in the chart to open the Case File below.
Investigative Archives
The Backstory
Click on a bar in the chart to load the historical context and narrative origins of a theory.
The Analysis
Once selected, our analysis will break down the evidence, feasibility, and why this theory persists or was proven true.
Partisan Narratives
Conspiracy theories are not exclusive to one side of the aisle. Both major U.S. parties have promulgated false narratives and exposed actual conspiracies.
The Analyst's Handbook
How do analysts differentiate between a plausible plot and a wild fantasy? These are the four most commonly used guidelines for determining a theory's likelihood.
Scale of Involvement
The more people required to keep a secret, the less likely it is to remain a secret. True conspiracies (like Watergate) usually involve small, tight-knit groups.
Parsimony (Occam's Razor)
The simplest explanation is usually correct. If a theory requires inventing new physics, massive bribery, or global coordination, it is likely false.
Falsifiability
Can the theory be proven wrong? Valid theories have evidence that could disprove them. False theories often shift the goalposts to explain away contradictory evidence.
Competence Gap
Does the government demonstrate the extreme competence required to execute the plot perfectly? Often, bureaucracy and inefficiency make grand plots impossible.