THE CONSPIRACY
INDEX
15 widely believed narratives analyzed through the lens of logistical feasibility and historical evidence.
50% Adult Belief
Approximately 50% of the U.S. adult population subscribes to at least one conspiracy theory. These narratives are a central part of modern cultural and political sociology.
one or more
alternative theories
The Feasibility Spectrum
This index ranks theories from 100% (Historical Fact) to 0% (Physically Impossible). The score evaluates the "Half-life of a Secret" based on participants and evidence.
Credibility Ranking Index
Visible: 15 Core Narratives
Technical Note: Theories at 100% are documented historical events. The sharp drop-off after Rank #5 represents the absence of credible internal whistleblowers and physical evidence.
Detailed Archive
Providing the backstory and feasibility analysis for all fifteen theories evaluated in our index.
Partisan Narratives
A balanced investigation into how U.S. political parties promulgate false narratives versus exposing genuine conspiracies.
Republican File
The 2020 "Stolen Election"
Claims of massive, coordinated fraud via Dominion voting machines and illegal ballot harvesting. Despite 60+ lost court cases and dozens of bipartisan audits confirming integrity, the narrative remains a central tenet of belief for millions.
The Alger Hiss Espionage
Richard Nixon and the GOP alleged State Dept. official Alger Hiss was a Soviet spy. Initially dismissed as a "Red Scare" myth by opponents, the 1990s release of the Venona Papers proved Hiss was an active Soviet agent.
Democratic File
The Steele Dossier Claims
Party leadership promoted opposition research alleging a specific, blackmail-backed conspiracy between Trump and the Kremlin. Extensive FBI investigation later found the core sensational claims to be unverified or outright fabrications.
The Watergate Scandal
Democrats insisted a 1972 break-in was part of a White House criminal plot. Their persistent investigation exposed Nixon's illegal surveillance and obstruction conspiracy, resulting in the only presidential resignation in history.
The Analyst's Handbook
Analytical guidelines for determining the likelihood of a conspiracy narrative.
Secret Half-Life
The more people required to keep a secret, the faster it leaks. Large plots (like faking a moon landing) involve hundreds of thousands of people and are mathematically certain to be exposed within 3-4 years.
Parsimony Test
Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Any theory requiring "magic science" or perfect competence across decades fails this fundamental logical test.
Bureaucratic Friction
Governments are famously inefficient. Theories relying on flawless inter-agency coordination across different administrations and decades are logistically impossible to maintain.
Falsifiability
A valid theory must be disprovable. If contradiction is simply "part of the plot," the narrative is a belief system rather than a hypothesis. Authentic theories survive or fail based on evidence.