Epistemological Assessments of Conspiratorial Narratives: A Study of Public Belief, Institutional Trust, and Empirical Feasibility in the United States

The landscape of American public discourse has undergone a radical transformation in the twenty-first century, characterized by an increasing fragmentation of consensus reality and the proliferation of alternative historical and political narratives. While the term "conspiracy theory" has historically been utilized as an epistemic dismissive to marginalize dissent from official accounts, the historical record demonstrates that clandestine collaborations within powerful institutions occasionally transition from the realm of fringe speculation to verified historical fact.1 This analysis investigates the prevalence and feasibility of fifteen contemporary conspiracy narratives, evaluates the role of major political parties in the promulgation and exposure of such theories, and defines the mathematical and logical frameworks utilized to differentiate between warranted and unwarranted skepticism.4

Mathematical and Logical Frameworks for Determining Theory Feasibility

The determination of a theory’s likelihood of being true necessitates more than qualitative speculation; it requires a structural analysis of the secret itself. Experts in physics and computational linguistics have developed models to quantify the lifespan of a conspiracy based on the number of participants required to maintain the ruse.1

The Grimes Viability Model

The most prominent mathematical framework for assessing conspiracy feasibility is the Grimes equation, developed by Dr. David Robert Grimes. This model posits that the probability of a conspiracy failing—either through an intentional whistle-blower or an accidental "bungler"—is an exponential function of the number of conspirators and the passage of time.1 The probability of a leak or failure, , over time  is expressed as:

In this formula,  represents the intrinsic probability of an individual conspirator revealing the secret, estimated at  per year based on historical precedents such as the NSA Prism program and the Tuskegee Syphilis experiment.1  denotes the number of individuals "in the loop," and  is the years elapsed. This equation provides a "best-case scenario" for conspirators, assuming they are dedicated and the secret does not require active maintenance.5 Based on this model, large-scale theories such as a faked moon landing (requiring over 400,000 participants) or global climate change fraud (requiring 405,000 participants) possess a near-certainty of exposure within less than four years.1

Qualitative Epistemic Guidelines

Beyond mathematical modeling, several qualitative criteria serve as benchmarks for professional analysts when evaluating the validity of a non-traditional narrative 3:

• Internal Consistency and Explanatory Power: Does the theory explain the "errant data" (minor anomalies) that the official narrative ignores, or does it merely multiply entities without providing a more parsimonious explanation?.4
• The Principle of Parsimony (Ockham’s Razor): Theories that require the perfect coordination of dozens of disparate agencies with zero leaks are considered less feasible than those involving small, specialized groups.1
• Cui Bono (Who Benefits?): The identification of a clear, logical motive is essential. If a conspiracy requires an actor to take risks that far outweigh the potential benefits, the theory’s feasibility is diminished.4
• The Fundamental Attribution Error: Analysts must determine if a theory is ascribing intentionality to what may be a result of systemic incompetence or random chance—a common feature in human systems characterized by chaos and ambiguity.4
• External Verification: A theory gains feasibility if independent experts utilizing different datasets arrive at the same contradictions of the official record.9

Prevalence of Conspiratorial Belief in the United States Adult Population

The integration of alternative narratives into the American mainstream is supported by robust polling data from 2024 and 2025. Research indicates that the vast majority of the U.S. adult population subscribes to at least one non-traditional structural explanation for political or scientific events.11

Broad Belief Statistics and Scales

According to a 50-state survey of over 124,000 respondents using the American Conspiratorial Thinking Scale, approximately 78.6% of U.S. adults agree with at least one conspiratorial idea.11 Within this group, a significant minority—approximately 19%—agree with every prompt on the scale, suggesting a deep-seated predisposition toward "conspiracism" as a primary lens for interpreting reality.11

The primary vector for the transmission of these beliefs is social media, with over 52% of respondents encountering specific theories (such as narratives surrounding the 2024 assassination attempt on Donald Trump) through digital platforms.11 However, analysts note that while social media provides the initial exposure, actual belief is more closely correlated with interpersonal connections and personal trust networks.11

Ranking Fifteen Common Conspiracy Theories by Likelihood of Feasibility

The following narratives are ranked from the highest likelihood of feasibility to the lowest. This ranking is based on a synthesis of forensic anomalies, the presence of documented procedural failures, and the size of the required "loop" of conspirators according to the Grimes model.1

1. The Homicide of Jeffrey Epstein

The death of financier Jeffrey Epstein in August 2019 at the Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC) represents the most feasible of modern conspiracy narratives due to the alignment of massive systemic failures with a high-stakes motive for powerful associates.14

Backstory and Analysis Epstein, awaiting trial for sex trafficking, was found dead in his cell. The official ruling was suicide by hanging. However, public skepticism is fueled by several anomalies: two guards on his unit failed to conduct mandatory 30-minute rounds for over six hours, and multiple cameras outside his cell malfunctioned on the night of his death.14 Furthermore, Dr. Michael Baden, a former NYC Chief Medical Examiner hired by the family, observed that fractures to Epstein’s hyoid bone and larynx were "extremely unusual" in suicidal hangings and more consistent with homicidal strangulation.15 While a DOJ investigation blamed "staff negligence" and a "perfect storm of screw-ups," the existence of unexplained shapes moving on staircase cameras and the falsification of prison logs provide a structural environment where a clandestine event could occur without detection.16

2. The JFK Assassination: Multiple Gunmen

The 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy remains the most historically significant conspiracy theory, distinguished by the fact that a second official government investigation partially validated its core premise.20

Backstory and Analysis While the 1964 Warren Commission concluded that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone, the 1979 House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) concluded that Kennedy was "probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy".20 This finding was predicated on acoustic evidence from a Dictabelt recording suggesting a fourth shot—a miss—fired from the "grassy knoll".22 Feasibility is enhanced by the documented concealment of information by the CIA regarding Oswald's foreign contacts and the high-level motives possessed by organized crime figures (such as Sam Giancana and Carlos Marcello) who were under aggressive investigation by the Kennedy administration.20 Unlike large-scale hoaxes, this plot would only require a small, compartmentalized cell of operatives and a subsequent "limited hang-out" cover-up by security agencies to hide their own negligence or complicity.20

3. The Controlled Demolition of World Trade Center Building 7

WTC 7, a 47-story skyscraper not struck by a plane on September 11, 2001, collapsed at 5:20 p.m. that afternoon. The official narrative and various engineering critiques offer differing mechanisms for this event.10

Backstory and Analysis The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) concluded in 2008 that uncontrolled office fires caused thermal expansion of floor beams, pushing a girder off its seat at Column 79 and initiating a progressive collapse.23 Critics, including structural engineers and researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, argue that NIST's model fails to account for the building's 2.25 seconds of symmetrical, gravitational acceleration (free-fall).24 Feasibility for an alternative narrative is supported by the "diesel fuel hypothesis," which notes that 12,000 gallons of diesel for the building's backup power were never recovered after the collapse.10 A secret hydrocarbon-fueled fire in the 5th-floor mechanical room could have compromised transfer structures in a manner not fully detailed in the official report, suggesting that the "conspiracy" may be an omission of specific technical failures or the suppression of an intentional sabotage event.10

4. The TWA Flight 800 Missile Strike

The mid-air explosion of TWA Flight 800 off the coast of Long Island in 1996 resulted in the deaths of all 230 people on board. While the official cause was an accidental fuel tank explosion, persistent narratives claim the aircraft was downed by a missile.26

Backstory and Analysis The NTSB concluded that a short circuit in the wiring of the center wing fuel tank ignited fuel vapors.26 However, over 700 eyewitnesses, many with military backgrounds, reported seeing a "streak of light" ascending toward the plane before the explosion.26 Feasibility is bolstered by radar data showing debris flying away from the aircraft at four times the speed of sound—velocity levels inconsistent with a low-pressure fuel tank deflagration.9 Former investigators and physicists argue that the FBI improperly sidelined NTSB experts early in the probe to hide a potential "friendly fire" incident involving a U.S. Navy missile test gone awry.26 This theory remains feasible because it involves a single-event cover-up by a small number of military and intelligence officials, a structure that fits within the Grimes viability thresholds.5

5. The RFK Assassination: A Second Gunman

In 1968, Senator Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated in the pantry of the Ambassador Hotel. Although Sirhan Sirhan was convicted, forensic and acoustic anomalies suggest he may not have been the sole shooter.29

Backstory and Analysis Sirhan Sirhan was positioned in front of Kennedy, yet the autopsy performed by Dr. Thomas Noguchi determined that the fatal shot was fired from behind Kennedy’s right ear at a distance of approximately one inch, with powder burns on the skin.29 Furthermore, forensic acoustic analysis of a recording made by reporter Stanislaw Pruszynski identified 13 shots, despite Sirhan’s revolver only holding eight.8 Feasibility is rated highly because the LAPD's documented destruction of door frame evidence containing extra bullet holes and the presence of private security guard Thane Eugene Cesar (who stood directly behind Kennedy and carried a matching caliber weapon) suggest a more complex crime scene than the one presented at trial.8

6. The COVID-19 Lab Leak Theory

The theory that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a research accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) has transitioned from a dismissed conspiracy to a leading hypothesis considered plausible by several U.S. intelligence agencies.12

Backstory and Analysis Early in the pandemic, the "lab leak" narrative was characterized as a xenophobic conspiracy. However, by 2025, 56% of U.S. voters believe the virus was created or leaked from a lab.12 The feasibility is supported by the WIV's known history of gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses and the lack of an identified natural zoonotic precursor in the wild after five years of searching.30 This theory is feasible because it does not require a "global" cover-up of the virus itself, but merely a localized effort by a small group of scientists and local government officials to obscure the origins of a catastrophic accident—a scenario that aligns with historical patterns of institutional self-preservation.30

7. The Assassination of Princess Diana

The 1997 car crash in Paris that killed Diana, Princess of Wales, was officially attributed to a drunk driver and reckless paparazzi.31

Backstory and Analysis Operation Paget, an 832-page report, investigated 175 conspiracy claims, specifically looking into allegations that the British MI6 orchestrated the crash.31 Feasibility is maintained by several "intelligence-style" anomalies: the white Fiat Uno involved in the crash belonged to a photojournalist with intelligence ties (James Andanson) who was later found dead in a locked, burning car, and all 14 CCTV cameras in the tunnel failed to record the event.34 While Operation Paget found these events "explainable" individually, their convergence led to a 2008 jury verdict of "unlawful killing" due to gross negligence, which remains an open door for those suspecting a government-sanctioned homicide designed to prevent Diana from marrying a non-Christian.31

8. Permanent Bureaucratic Control (The "Deep State")

The concept of a "Deep State" posits that a permanent network of un-elected military, intelligence, and bureaucratic officials works in secret to manipulate or undermine elected leaders.12

Backstory and Analysis Believed by 55% of the population, this narrative is considered conceptually feasible by political scientists who study "institutional inertia".12 Historical examples like the FBI's COINTELPRO and the CIA's MKUltra demonstrate that these agencies have operated outside of executive and legislative oversight for decades.36 The feasibility does not rely on a secret cult, but on the structural reality of "siloed" intelligence and the revolving door between government contractors and agency leadership, creating a "shadow government" that maintains policy continuity regardless of election outcomes.12

9. Elite Manipulation of Mainstream Media

The belief that major media corporations and global elites coordinate to control the public narrative is a foundational modern conspiracy.12

Backstory and Analysis Approximately 74% of U.S. adults believe the media takes orders from elites.12 This theory’s feasibility is grounded in the economic reality of media consolidation, where 90% of U.S. media is controlled by six conglomerates.40 The narrative posits that "censorship by omission" and the "manufacture of consent" allow elite interests to frame public debate.39 This is considered feasible not as a secret plot, but as a byproduct of shared class interests among media owners, advertisers, and government officials, often manifesting in the suppression of stories like the Hunter Biden laptop or the dissent on COVID-19 origins.40

10. Pharmaceutical Suppression of Cures for Profit

This narrative suggests that "Big Pharma" companies suppress effective, low-cost cures for chronic diseases to maximize the profit from long-term treatments.7

Backstory and Analysis Held by 72% of voters, this theory focuses on cancer and HIV/AIDS.12 Feasibility is supported by the economic reality of the "Cui Bono" principle: maintenance drugs (like chemotherapy or ARVs) generate recurring revenue, whereas a single-dose cure would terminate that stream.7 While medical scientists argue that the complexity of cancer makes a "universal cure" impossible, the documented suppression of negative research and the high-priced patenting of "me-too" drugs lend a degree of structural feasibility to the idea that the industry prioritizes profit over total eradication.7

11. UFO and Alien Visitation Concealment

The belief that the U.S. government possesses physical evidence of extraterrestrial craft and biological entities has moved toward the mainstream following the 2023 Congressional testimony of whistleblowers like David Grusch.45

Backstory and Analysis Roughly 38% of Americans believe the government is hiding alien evidence.45 Feasibility is considered moderate for data concealment (the hiding of advanced human technology or unexplained atmospheric phenomena) but lower for a multi-decade extraterrestrial recovery program.13 The Grimes model suggests that a secret involving thousands of aerospace employees would have likely been exposed by now, though proponents argue that "Special Access Programs" (SAPs) utilize extreme compartmentalization to bypass these mathematical limits.5

12. Atmospheric Geoengineering (Chemtrails)

The "Chemtrail" theory posits that the persistent trails behind aircraft are intentionally dispersed chemicals used for weather modification or human experimentation.12

Backstory and Analysis Believed by 29% of the population, this theory confuses standard "contrails" (water vapor) with "chemtrails".12 Feasibility is low for a secret, global mass-poisoning program due to the logistics required to modify every commercial aircraft and involve thousands of pilots without a leak.1 However, the feasibility of limited weather modification is high, as the U.S. government has openly discussed "stratospheric aerosol injection" and "cloud seeding" programs to combat climate change, providing a kernel of truth for the broader conspiracy.45

13. The Moon Landing Hoax

The belief that NASA filmed the Apollo moon landings in a movie studio to win the Space Race remains one of the most persistent theories in ufology.38

Backstory and Analysis Belief ranges from 9% to 22%.12 The feasibility is extremely low; Dr. Grimes calculated that a hoax involving the 411,000 employees of NASA and its contractors would have been revealed by a whistleblower in 3 years and 8 months.1 Furthermore, the theory is debunked by physical evidence, such as the mirrors left on the lunar surface that are still used by earth-based lasers to measure the distance to the Moon.5

14. COVID-19 Vaccine Microchips

Emerging in 2020, this narrative claimed that COVID-19 vaccinations were a cover for the implantation of microchips to track or control the global population.13

Backstory and Analysis Agreement with this claim is low, ranging from 9% to 17%.13 Feasibility is near zero due to physical and technological constraints: current RFID or GPS tracking technology small enough to fit through a 25-gauge vaccine needle lacks a sufficient power source or antenna to transmit data through the human body over long distances.13 The theory is characterized by analysts as a manifestation of "technological anxiety" rather than a plausible plot.43

15. The Flat Earth Theory

The most radical departure from scientific consensus, the Flat Earth theory claims the world is a stationary disc and that all images from space are faked.12

Backstory and Analysis Belief in a Flat Earth is held by approximately 10% to 23% of U.S. adults, particularly among Millennials.12 Feasibility is zero. The theory is disproved by simple geometric observations—such as the way ships disappear over the horizon hull-first and the differing angles of the star Polaris measured from different latitudes—proofs first established by Eratosthenes in 240 BC.38 This theory persists primarily as a social identity and a total rejection of institutional "expert" authority.13

Institutional Narratives in U.S. Politics: Case Studies of Falsehood and Truth

The major American political parties serve as both the primary engines of narrative creation and the primary vehicles for investigative oversight.

Republican Party: False Narrative (Birtherism)

The "Birther" narrative was a racially and politically charged conspiracy theory claiming that President Barack Obama was born in Kenya and was therefore constitutionally ineligible to serve as president.47

Analysis of the Narrative This theory was widely promulgated by Republican figures, most notably Donald Trump, between 2011 and 2016.48 It relied on claims that Obama's Hawaiian birth certificate was a "forgery" and that his grandmother in Kenya had been recorded saying she was present at his birth—a claim later revealed to be an out-of-context translation error.47 Despite the release of the "long-form" birth certificate in 2011, the theory persisted, with Trump only publicly acknowledging Obama's U.S. birth in late 2016 while simultaneously (and falsely) blaming the narrative on the Hillary Clinton campaign.48 Studies indicate the narrative functioned as a "loyalty test" for the GOP base, leveraging racial resentment into political mobilization.47

Republican Party: Conspiracy Exposed (The Hunter Biden Laptop)

In 2020, Republican-led committees and media figures were instrumental in exposing the authenticity of the Hunter Biden laptop, a story that had been systematically suppressed as a "conspiracy theory" by the Democratic establishment and intelligence officials.51

Analysis of the Exposure Following a New York Post report on the laptop’s contents, 51 former intelligence officials signed an open letter claiming the story had the "earmarks of a Russian information operation".51 This led to the story being blocked by Twitter and Facebook. However, subsequent House Judiciary and Intelligence Committee investigations revealed that the Biden campaign had coordinated with these officials to provide "talking points" for the 2020 debates.52 Forensic analysis later confirmed the laptop was genuine and had been in FBI custody since 2019, proving that the Republican claims of "politicized intelligence" and "corporate media collusion" were factually grounded.51

Democratic Party: False Narrative (The Steele Dossier)

The "Steele Dossier" was a collection of unverified and largely fabricated claims suggesting a "well-developed conspiracy of co-operation" between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.54

Analysis of the Narrative Funded by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, the dossier was compiled by Christopher Steele using "hearsay and third-hand gossip".55 Prominent Democratic leaders and media pundits promoted the dossier as a "roadmap" of treason for nearly three years.54 The 2019 Mueller Report and subsequent declassified documents revealed that the FBI knew the dossier was "junk" by early 2017 after interviewing Steele's primary subsource, who admitted the stories were "rumor and speculation".56 The narrative paralyzed U.S. politics for half a decade and led to the improper surveillance of U.S. citizens through FISA warrants based on fraudulent evidence.55

Democratic Party: Conspiracy Exposed (The Watergate Scandal)

The Democratic Party, through the Senate Watergate Committee and investigative persistence, exposed the criminal conspiracy of the Nixon administration—the gold standard for a proven political conspiracy.58

Analysis of the Exposure What began as a "third-rate burglary" of the DNC headquarters in 1972 was revealed to be part of a massive program of domestic espionage and sabotage directed by the White House.58 Democratic Chairman Sam Ervin and legal counsel led the public hearings that uncovered the illegal "Plumbers" unit, the use of the CIA to block FBI investigations, and the payment of "hush money" to burglars.58 The exposure was verified by the release of the "smoking gun" tapes, demonstrating that an aggressive, independent investigation by a rival political party is the most effective safeguard against clandestine government abuses.58

Synthesis and Conclusion

The study of conspiracy theories reveals that the feasibility of a clandestine plot is inversely proportional to its scale and duration. While 78.6% of American adults believe at least one such theory, the professional analysis must distinguish between the "Manichean dichotomy" of totalizing hoaxes (like Flat Earth or Moon Landing) and the documented reality of "elite misconduct" (like Epstein or Watergate).11 As institutional trust continues to "decay," the proliferation of these narratives suggests a public that is increasingly utilize "stigmatized knowledge" as a defensive mechanism against perceived institutional betrayal.3 The ultimate feasibility of a theory remains tethered to the Grimes equation: the more minions required to spoil the plot, the more likely the truth will emerge through the inevitable friction of human systems.5

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