The Geopolitical, Military, and Economic Imperatives of the New Space Age: A Strategic Analysis of Orbital, Lunar, and Martian Occupation

The transformation of outer space from a scientific frontier into a core domain of economic, military, and geopolitical power constitutes one of the defining shifts of the twenty-first century. No longer viewed as a peripheral arena for symbolic achievement, space has become an essential layer of the global "digital-industrial complex".1 The urgency with which sovereign states are pursuing space dominance is driven by the realization that control over the orbital high ground is synonymous with control over terrestrial infrastructure, economic stability, and national security.1 This report examines the multi-dimensional motivators for governments to access and occupy Earth's orbit, the Moon, and Mars, analyzing these objectives through the lenses of warfare, resource extraction, and long-term sustainability.

The Geopolitical Urgency and the Quest for Dominance

The current acceleration in space activity is characterized by an intensifying rivalry between the United States and the People's Republic of China, whose contrasting models of governance and investment are reshaping the orbital landscape.1 For the United States, space leadership is a legacy secured during the Cold War that is now viewed as being at risk due to rapid Chinese advancements.3 Beijing views space as a warfighting domain and seeks space superiority as a prerequisite for controlling the battlespace in future conflicts.3 Their whole-of-government campaign aims to displace the United States as the world's premier space power by 2045, reshaping international governance and technical standards to favor a state-centric model.1

This competition has given rise to the concept of "astropolitik," where geopolitical strategy hinges on orbital supremacy.1 The emergence of dual-use satellite systems and the commercialization of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) have blurred the lines between civil, commercial, and military activities.4 Governments are motivated by the need to protect critical infrastructure; modern society relies on space assets for everything from financial transactions and weather forecasting to telecommunications and global navigation.2 A loss of access to these systems would not only diminish a nation's standing but would directly threaten its national security and economic competitiveness.3

Geopolitical Shifts and National Security Strategy (2025–2030)

Recent shifts in U.S. national security doctrine highlight the increasing prioritization of space as a primary defensive domain. The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) and the subsequent 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS) emphasize the "Golden Dome" missile defense system, a next-generation shield designed to protect the American homeland from ballistic, hypersonic, and advanced cruise missile threats.5 This strategy represents a significant reallocation of resources toward homeland and hemispheric security, including the assertion of a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, which aims to prevent foreign incursions—both terrestrial and orbital—within the Western Hemisphere.5

The military posture is moving toward a "military overmatch" with China, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, requiring long-range logistics and resilient space-based ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance).5 This necessitates a robust presence in cislunar space to ensure that American assets remain secure from foreign interference and to prevent an "interruption in off-Earth operations".10 The urgency is further underscored by the need to replace the International Space Station (ISS) by 2030 with viable commercial or sovereign alternatives to maintain a continuous human presence in orbit.10

1

The Strategic Value of Orbital Space and Cislunar Regions

The high ground of space provides an unparalleled vantage point for observation and power projection. From a warfare standpoint, the ability to "see the board" allows commanders to monitor troop movements, missile sites, and critical infrastructure with global coverage.11 Space advantage enables forces to sense in total darkness and apply precise force, making it an "Achilles' heel" for those who lose access while serving as a "great enabler" for those who retain it.12

Orbital Warfare: Strategy, Finesse, and the Gray Zone

Modern orbital warfare is increasingly characterized by "gray zone" activities—subtle, non-kinetic actions that may go unnoticed until a strategic fait accompli is achieved.11 Strength in this domain is measured not by raw firepower, but by strategy, finesse, and the ability to maneuver across an orbital chessboard of vast proportions.11 This includes the "silent choreography" of positioning civilian spacecraft onto trajectories that could threaten military Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) or communication assets.11

Non-kinetic capabilities such as cyberattacks, signal jamming, and directed energy (lasers) are preferred because they avoid the "Kessler effect"—a cascade of space debris that could render certain orbits unusable for all parties.4 Uplink jamming requires significant power and technology to disrupt signals from ground transmitters to satellites, while downlink jamming is more localized but cheaper and more accessible for non-state actors or middle powers.11 The ability to cloak military objectives behind commercial operations adds a layer of strategic ambiguity, a tactic masterfully employed by China through its "military-civil fusion" model.1

The Cislunar Corridor and Lagrange Points

As activity extends toward the Moon, cislunar space—the region beyond Geostationary Orbit (GEO) but within the Earth-Moon gravitational system—is recognized as "key terrain".13 The tactical advantage of this region lies in its unique astrodynamics. Spacecraft require significantly more energy to escape Earth's deep "gravity well" than to launch from the Moon, which has only one-sixth of Earth's gravity.14 Consequently, forces stationed on the Moon or at stable Lagrange points possess greater freedom of action and maneuverability.14

The Lagrange points are gravitationally stable locations where the pull of the Earth and Moon cancel each other out, allowing spacecraft to remain stationary with minimal propellant.14

• L1 and L2: Located between the Earth and Moon and on the lunar far side, respectively, these points are vital for communications relay and monitoring the "Earth-Moon corridor".13
• L4 and L5: These stable points could host permanent structures for long-term surveillance or logistical support.14

The U.S. military is currently developing the TBD2 (Track at Big Distances with Track-Before-Detect) program to improve early warning for threats originating from or transiting cislunar space, bridging the "surveillance gap" that exists beyond traditional GEO tracking.15 China has also demonstrated advanced maneuvers in this region, including rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO) and docking in lunar orbit, signaling a clear intent to establish a "first presence" that could threaten U.S. civil and commercial interests.13

Natural Resources: The Economic Engine of Space Occupation

The occupation of the Moon and Mars is driven by the potential for an interplanetary economy valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The Moon, in particular, is viewed as a "celestial sponge" that has absorbed valuable resources over billions of years.16

Lunar Resources and the Cislunar Logistics Chain

The most critical resource for near-term lunar occupation is water ice, located in the permanently shadowed craters of the lunar poles.17 Water ice provides the essential feedstock for life support (oxygen and drinking water) and, crucially, rocket propellant (hydrogen and oxygen).19 The ability to produce fuel on-site—In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU)—would radically change the cost structures of space travel by allowing missions to refuel in orbit rather than hauling all necessary propellant from Earth's surface.18

16

Helium-3 (He-3) has garnered significant commercial attention due to its abundance in the lunar regolith compared to Earth.17 While its use as a fusion fuel remains decades away, its near-term application in superconducting quantum computing is a "bankable" business case.16 Companies like Interlune have secured agreements to sell lunar-extracted He-3 at prices reaching $20 million per kilogram, targeting the extreme cooling requirements of quantum computer chips.16

Mars as a Resource Hub and Terraforming Prospect

Mars possesses all the raw materials required to support human life, including carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen, oxygen, and vast reserves of water ice.22 The Martian atmosphere, though thin, is 95% carbon dioxide, which can be processed into oxygen and methane fuel through the Sabatier reaction.23 While the cost of transporting materials from Mars back to Earth is currently prohibitive ($200,000 per kg), Mars is viewed as the "best possibility for terraforming" in the solar system.25 The goal is to modify the environment over centuries to sustain life, though this remains a long-term post-settlement objective.26

The Mars Population: Foreseeable Goals vs. Science Fiction

Distinguishing between reasonable milestones and speculative fantasy is crucial for understanding the foreseeable future of Martian occupation.

Reasonable Goals for the 2030s and 2040s

The consensus among scientific communities and futurologists is that humans will most likely not land on Mars until the 2040s.28 The 2030s will be characterized by a "phased timeline" of robotic preparation 23:

• Phase 1 (2030s): Unmanned missions focused on resource assessment, identifying subsurface ice and atmospheric moisture.23
• Phase 2 (Late 2030s): Initial "footprints" and the deployment of hardware, but not sustainable settlement.29
• Phase 3 (2040s+): Short-term crewed missions that serve as a bridge to permanent habitation.23

Technological foundations such as reusable rocket technology, pioneered by entities like SpaceX, have significantly reduced launch costs and brought these goals within the realm of economic possibility.23 Falcon 9 has already reduced costs to $2,700 per kg, a trend that must continue for Martian missions to be sustainable.30

The Fantasy of Mass Colonization

The vision of settling one million people on Mars by 2050 is largely considered "pop-space culture" and an "exodus fantasy" sparked by climate change concerns.28 To achieve such a population, Earth would need to sustain 40,000 immigrants to Mars per year starting in the mid-2020s—a rate currently impossible to support with existing technology.31

Demographic projections suggest that even by 2100, a "plausible" Martian population might be closer to 10 million, representing a mere 0.1% of the total human population.31 This would imply a population density similar to Greenland's, concentrated in research bases and experimental colonies rather than thriving urban centers.31 The idea of Mars as a "Plan B" for the survival of the species is a strong motivator for some, but the reality is that any planetary threat is far easier to mitigate on Earth than it is to colonize another world.32

Life on Other Worlds: The Reality of an Uncomfortable Existence

For the average person, life on the Moon or Mars would be a grueling and inherently uncomfortable experience, defined by physiological decay and psychological strain.

Physiological Hazards and the Gravitational Tax

The human body is evolved for Earth's gravity (), and departing from it induces a series of detrimental changes. Astronauts' entire systems—muscles, bones, inner ear, and organs—must adjust to the  of the Moon and  of Mars.33

• Bone Density Loss: The reduced mechanical load leads to rapid mineral density loss. The rate of loss () is proportional to the difference between local gravity () and Earth's gravity ():
  
  This results in conditions such as osteopenia and osteoporosis if not mitigated by intense exercise and pharmacological interventions.23
• Muscle Atrophy: Similar to bone loss, the atrophy rate () follows a parallel formula, requiring resistance training and neuromuscular electrical stimulation to maintain functionality.23
• Visual Impairment (SANS): Fluid shifts in low gravity increase intracranial pressure, leading to Spaceflight-Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome (SANS), which causes permanent visual changes.23

Psychological and Environmental Stressors

The "Earth-out-of-view" phenomenon represents a significant psychological challenge; as Earth becomes an insignificant dot, the sense of isolation becomes profound.35 Inhabitants must cope with:

• Radiation Exposure: Martian travelers face a minimum of 0.66 sieverts during a round trip, with surface levels 100 to 1,000 times higher than Earth's.23 This "stealthy" threat increases cancer risks and can cause degenerative tissue effects.23
• Confinement and Monotony: Living in cramped, artificial environments with no natural sunlight or fresh air triggers emotional dysregulation and cognitive dysfunction.33
• Toxic Environments: Martian dust is not only abrasive but contains toxic perchlorates that would be lethal if tracked into living quarters.24

To address these issues, space architecture is evolving toward "adaptive design".37 This includes the utilization of lava tube caves for natural radiation shielding and thermal stability.37 Designs like the Zhuque Base and Xuanwu Station incorporate traditional cultural elements and biomimetic strategies to support mental health, using 3D-printed regolith and simulated sunlight to create more "human-friendly" spaces.25

Projections for an Economically Productive Lunar Economy

The integration of the Moon into the global economy is predicted to surpass a valuation of $170 billion (€142 billion) by 2040.39 This growth is driven by a shift from institutional spending to commercially driven missions.

Market Segmentation and Payload Projections

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) identifies three key areas for economic output: Transportation, Resource Utilization, and Data Exploitation.39 The global lunar transportation market is expected to reach 187 tons of cumulative payload between 2020 and 2040 in a nominal scenario, resulting in a market size of $79 billion.40

20

Business Models and ROI Requirements

For lunar ventures to attract private investment, they must move toward the "as-a-service" transformation, shifting from heavy Capital Expenditure (CapEx) to Operational Expenditure (OpEx) models such as Hardware-as-a-Service (HaaS).42

• Bankability: A bankable return is defined as a minimum 40% internal rate of return (IRR) within seven years.43
• Anchor Tenants: The U.S. government remains the primary buyer, with prices for lunar transportation estimated at $4.5 million to $7 million per kg depending on the government's market role.42
• Vertical Integration: Successful firms are pursuing end-to-end control of the value chain to reduce costs and increase reliability.42

The productivity of the Moon as a logistics hub is maximized by its ability to provide liquid oxygen () to LEO. Analysis indicates that delivering lunar-produced  to LEO at a cost of $2,430 per kg is one-quarter to one-third the cost of traditional Space Shuttle-era Earth-to-orbit launches.44 If hydrogen co-production is also achieved, transportation costs could be reduced by an additional $600 million per year.44

Conclusion: The New Multipolar Orbital Order

The return to space dominance is no longer a matter of national pride but a fundamental requirement for the survival of modern statehood and economic prosperity. The "digital-industrial complex" that governs life on Earth is inextricably linked to the "high ground" of orbital space. The urgency demonstrated by the United States and China reflects a long-term bid for infrastructural dominance that will define the twenty-first century.

While the occupation of Mars remains largely in the realm of long-term scientific aspiration and phased robotic exploration, the Moon is rapidly becoming an operational theater for resource extraction and military positioning. The strategic importance of the cislunar corridor and the economic potential of water ice and Helium-3 provide the pragmatic foundation for permanent lunar settlements. However, the path forward is fraught with physiological and psychological challenges that will make space living an "uncomfortable existence" for the foreseeable future. Only through advanced adaptive architecture, ISRU-driven industrialization, and a robust cislunar logistics chain can humanity hope to transform these hostile environments into a sustainable extension of our civilization. The nations that successfully navigate this transition will not only secure their own defense but will preside over the transition of the human race into a multi-planetary species.

Works cited

1. Orbital Rivalry: The U.S.-China ... - TRENDS Research & Advisory, accessed February 2, 2026, https://trendsresearch.org/insight/orbital-rivalry-the-u-s-china-competition-and-the-future-of-the-global-space-economy/
2. “Astropolitics” and weaponisation of space—Drawing past lessons to address space arms' escalation - Frontiers, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2025.1653205/full
3. Chapter 7 - The Final Frontier: China's Ambitions to Dominate Space, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2025-11/Chapter_7--The_Final_Frontier_Chinas_Ambitions_to_Dominate_Space.pdf
4. How Geopolitics is Reshaping the Space Domain, accessed February 2, 2026, https://sessd.com/gsr/how-geopolitics-is-reshaping-the-space-domain/
5. National Security Strategy: Potential Implications for DOD of Prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and China | Congress.gov, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF13137
6. The Next National Defense Strategy: Mission-Based Force Planning, accessed February 2, 2026, https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/News/Display/Article/4217911/the-next-national-defense-strategy-mission-based-force-planning/
7. The 2026 National Defense Strategy by the Numbers: Radical Changes, Moderate Changes, and Some Continuities - CSIS, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.csis.org/analysis/2026-national-defense-strategy-numbers-radical-changes-moderate-changes-and-some
8. National Security Strategy | The White House, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
9. Breaking down Trump's 2025 National Security Strategy - Brookings Institution, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/breaking-down-trumps-2025-national-security-strategy/
10. What Space Superiority Means for Artemis, Mars, and U.S. Leadership in Space, accessed February 2, 2026, https://twit.tv/posts/tech/what-space-superiority-means-artemis-mars-and-us-leadership-space
11. Space as a Gray Zone: The Future of Orbital Warfare - Modern War ..., accessed February 2, 2026, https://mwi.westpoint.edu/space-as-a-gray-zone-the-future-of-orbital-warfare/
12. Why Military Space Matters - NDU Press - National Defense University, accessed February 2, 2026, https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Joint-Force-Quarterly/Joint-Force-Quarterly-110/Article/Article/3450009/why-military-space-matters/
13. HIGH GROUND OR HIGH FANTASY: DEFENSE UTILITY OF ..., accessed February 2, 2026, https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2024-05/Wilson_HighGround_20240416.pdf
14. Preserving Freedom of Action in Cislunar Space - Air University, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Articles/Article-Display/Article/2159463/preserving-freedom-of-action-in-cislunar-space/
15. US military wants to track 'potential threats' coming from the moon | Space, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/us-military-wants-to-track-potential-threats-coming-from-the-moon
16. Mining the moon: Can you make money harvesting helium-3? | Space, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.space.com/astronomy/moon/mining-the-moon-can-you-make-money-harvesting-helium-3
17. Lunar resources - Wikipedia, accessed February 2, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_resources
18. What Resources Could We Find on the Moon? Here are Three Possibilities! - HeroX, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.herox.com/blog/954-what-resources-could-we-find-on-the-moon-here-are
19. ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL OF LUNAR ... - Arthur D. Little, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.adlittle.com/sites/default/files/reports/Assessing%20the%20Potential%20of%20Lunar%20Resource%20Utilization.pdf
20. The Lunar Economy by 2040: Possibilities and Perspectives - BTU AI, accessed February 2, 2026, https://btuai.ge/en/the-lunar-economy-by-2040-possibilities-and-perspectives/
21. Mining Company Says It's Identified Hugely Valuable Material on Surface of the Moon, accessed February 2, 2026, https://futurism.com/space/mining-company-valuable-material-surface-moon-helium
22. Is Our Future Dependent on a Mars Colony? - Florida Tech, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.fit.edu/lp/is-our-future-dependent-on-a-mars-colony/
23. Towards sustainable horizons: A comprehensive blueprint for Mars colonization - PMC, accessed February 2, 2026, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10884476/
24. What are the advantages of building a human colony on Mars vs the moon?, accessed February 2, 2026, https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/44445/what-are-the-advantages-of-building-a-human-colony-on-mars-vs-the-moon
25. Zhuque Base for Martian Habitation: Conceptual Design and ..., accessed February 2, 2026, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12423506/
26. MARS HABITAT - SpaceArchitect.org, accessed February 2, 2026, http://spacearchitect.org/pubs/NASA-CR-189985.pdf
27. Colonization of Mars - Wikipedia, accessed February 2, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization_of_Mars
28. The colonization of Mars will still have to be awaited - OHB SE, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.ohb.de/en/magazine/the-colonization-of-mars-will-still-have-to-be-awaited-1
29. Colonizing Mars Before 2030: Realistic Goal or Sci-Fi Dream? - YouTube, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo6jaq_Lrho
30. Why Mars is America's next strategic imperative - The Space Review, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.thespacereview.com/article/5091/1
31. Worldbuilding Near-Future Space Demography - Adamas Nemesis, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.adamasnemesis.com/2020/05/13/worldbuilding-near-future-space-demography/
32. CMV: Mars colonisation in any kind of near future is a cretinous idea. - Reddit, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1kywfao/cmv_mars_colonisation_in_any_kind_of_near_future/
33. 5 Hazards of Human Spaceflight - NASA, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.nasa.gov/hrp/hazards/
34. The Burden of Space Exploration on the Mental Health of Astronauts: A Narrative Review, accessed February 2, 2026, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8696290/
35. Psychological and sociological effects of spaceflight - Wikipedia, accessed February 2, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_and_sociological_effects_of_spaceflight
36. Could we live on Mars? Human exploration and the Red Planet, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/space-astronomy/how-could-humans-live-on-mars
37. Concept for the Future Utilization of Lunar Underground Space and ..., accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/22/4057
38. THE LIVING HABITAT - Lund University Publications, accessed February 2, 2026, https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9199693/file/9203181.pdf
39. PwC's 'Lunar market assessment: market trends and challenges in the development of a lunar economy', accessed February 2, 2026, https://space-economy.esa.int/article/119/pwcs-lunar-market-assessment-market-trends-and-challenges-in-the-development-of-a-lunar-economy
40. Lunar market assessment: market trends and challenges in the development of a lunar economy - PwC Australia, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.pwc.com.au/industry/space-industry/lunar-market-assessment-2021.pdf
41. The search for a commercial lunar economy - The Space Review, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4898/1
42. Business Models of the Space Economy, accessed February 2, 2026, https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2025/08/15/business-models-of-the-space-economy/
43. Commercial Lunar Transportation Study Market Assessment Summary - NASA, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/483900main_lunar_commercial_transportation_study.pdf?emrc=47acd3
44. Utilization of Space Resources in the Space Transportation System, accessed February 2, 2026, https://www.nss.org/settlement/nasa/spaceresvol2/utilization.html